Experts Archive - mflorio.tsn (%2)

• Greatest NFL QB ever? Peyton Manning needs at least one more Super Bowl ring to be considered
  posted on February 03, 2010 - 08:31:47 am
  
  

  Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning, winner of a league-record four Associated Press MVP awards, eventually could be remembered as the greatest NFL quarterback of all time.

  
  
  
• NFL, players share the blame for labor strife
  posted on February 05, 2010 - 05:49:23 am
  
  

  As the NFL and its players union move closer and closer to labor Armageddon, these two business partners seem to have lost sight of one important fact.

  
  
  
• 10-Pack: Non-Super Bowl Super Bowl week storylines
  posted on January 28, 2010 - 04:50:57 pm
  
  

  The Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints will get most of the attention next week in Miami. But what other NFL stories will get buzz? Here's a look at 10 of them:

  
  
  
• The only way to fix Pro Bowl: Play it in August
  posted on January 25, 2010 - 12:42:41 pm
  
  
  
  
• Be proactive: Change NFL overtime rules now
  posted on January 09, 2009 - 07:26:40 am
  
  
  Mike Florio

  For years now, I've been waiting for a high-profile NFL game to be decided in overtime with the team that wins the coin toss scoring on the first drive.

  
  
  
• 10-Pack: Favre, Vikings to meet all the Saints' rowdy friends
  posted on January 22, 2010 - 08:10:22 am
  
  

  ProFootballTalk.com's Mike Florio weighs in on the biggest story lines of the NFC and AFC Championships Games:

  
  
  
• Don't fret Bills fans, Chan Gailey's resume speaks for itself
  posted on January 19, 2010 - 11:18:43 am
  
  

  Once upon a time, Chan Gailey occupied a spot near the top of the "A" list for NFL head-coaching candidates.

  
  
  
• 10-Pack: Saints need injection of early-season magic
  posted on January 15, 2010 - 08:21:37 am
  
  

  ProFootballTalk.com's Mike Florio weighs in on the biggest story lines of the divisional playoffs:

  
  
  
• NFL should dump or change the Rooney Rule
  posted on January 11, 2010 - 05:58:21 am
  
  

  Faced with not-so-subtle threats of a lawsuit from Cyrus Mehri and the late Johnnie Cochran regarding the gross under-representation of minorities in head-coaching positions, the NFL passed the &ld

  
  
  
• 10-Pack: Cowboys' Phillips is coaching for his job
  posted on January 08, 2010 - 08:03:35 am
  
  

  ProFootballTalk.com's Mike Florio weighs in on the biggest story lines of Wild Card Week:

  
  
  
• Ranking the possible landing spots for Bill Cowher
  posted on January 06, 2010 - 06:49:47 am
  
  

  Bill Cowher has a problem. By waiting to get serious about getting back into the NFL, Cowher has few choices, now that he's finally ready to return.

  
  
  
• Coaching? You call that work?
  posted on December 28, 2009 - 08:54:56 pm
  
  

  ProFootballTalk.com's Mike Florio weighs in on the Urban Meyer saga:

  
  
  
• 10-Pack: Indy needs to feed off the anger it has generated
  posted on December 30, 2009 - 10:55:43 pm
  
  

  ProFootballTalk.com's Mike Florio weighs in on the biggest story lines of Week 17:

  
  
  
• 10-Pack: What Mike Holmgren needs to do to straighten out the Browns
  posted on December 21, 2009 - 09:03:44 pm
  
  

  ProFootballTalk.com's Mike Florio weighs in on the Cleveland Browns hiring Mike Holmgren to be their new team president:

  
  
  
• 10-Pack: The end of Steelers football as we know it
  posted on December 24, 2009 - 08:08:50 am
  
  
  Mike Florio

  ProFootballTalk.com's Mike Florio weighs in on the biggest story lines of Week 16:

  
  
  
• 10-Pack: Don't expect Steelers to just roll over
  posted on December 18, 2009 - 08:35:09 am
  
  

  ProFootballTalk.com's Mike Florio weighs in on the biggest story lines of Week 15:

  
  
  
• Bottom line on Randy Moss: Time to stop babying him
  posted on December 15, 2009 - 07:19:29 pm
  
  
  
  
• 10-Pack: Are Bengals legit? We'll find out soon enough
  posted on December 11, 2009 - 08:06:15 am
  
  

  ProFootballTalk.com's Mike Florio weighs in on the biggest story lines of Week 14:

  
  
  
• Nixing of supplemental revenue sharing won't impact players' in 2010
  posted on December 09, 2009 - 08:44:47 am
  
  

  Much has been said lately about the NFL's plan to dump the supplemental revenue sharing plan in 2010.

  And much of what has been said is incorrect.

  
  
  
• 10-Pack: Atlanta homecoming for Michael Vick
  posted on December 04, 2009 - 08:17:24 am
  
  

  ProFootballTalk.com's Mike Florio weighs in on the biggest story lines of Week 13:

  
  
  
• Is Vince Young's career path paralleling that of Kordell Stewart?
  posted on December 02, 2009 - 08:34:41 am
  
  

  Ten years ago today, Kordell Stewart officially lost his job as starting quarterback of the Pittsburgh Steelers. On that day, veteran Mike Tomczak took the reins for the rest of the season.

  
  
  
• New sensitivity to head injuries likely means shorter careers for non-replaceable players
  posted on November 25, 2009 - 07:05:46 am
  
  

  It's no coincidence that, less than a month after Congress stuck its nose into the problem of brain injuries in pro football, NFL officials have implemented strong measures aimed at taking care of the situation.

  

  Players like Brian Westbrook could see shortened careers because of the NFL's new head injury guidelines.

  Just before Congress was to take care of it for them.

  And so, on Tuesday, the NFL rolled out seven tangible steps to reduce concussions -- and to ensure that players sustaining concussions won't play until cleared to do so by an independent specialist.

  Many questions remain, including the manner in which the independent specialist will be hired and the ability of the team to hire a new independent specialist if the coach becomes frustrated by an independent specialist who is too darn independent with his recommendations. More immediately, it remains to be seen whether key players like Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner and Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will be cleared to play in key games this weekend despite concussion symptoms that they would choose to ignore because they believe playing is more important than any minor (in their possibly impaired minds) risks to their long-term health and well-being.

  Under the new procedures, a player's wishes won't matter, in theory. But theory and reality could be banging heads if a player thinks he's fine but the specialist digs in his heels.

  At the other end of the spectrum are the more fungible players, guys like Raiders linebacker Jon Alston and Eagles running back Brian Westbrook. The Contra Costa Times recently reported that Alston, primarily a special-teams player, possibly has been playing despite concussion-related symptoms. It's less a badge of honor to play in those situations than it is a stain of cowardice not to do so. Besides, guys who can't play get replaced -- and then it's time to find a job that entails far less physical risk but pays far lower wages.

  And that's the reality Westbrook faces. Already 30 and on the last legs of his career because his legs have gone through too much wear and tear, Westbrook's unavailability because of a concussion problem makes him a possible liability in 2010. All things being equal, a player at a given position with a concussion history will be viewed as less desirable than a player with no such baggage. With Westbrook's attractiveness already diminished by a history of injuries other than concussions, his recent struggles with head injuries likely will seal his fate.

  

  As a result, player assessments now will include the question of whether and to what extent a player has a history of concussions. For those who do have that history, a stigma will apply and it will be overcome only if the player possesses rare skills. Otherwise, the coach will opt for someone with roughly equivalent talent and a clear medical history from the neck up.

  In the end, the careers of some players will be shortened. Not the great ones; coaches will be patient with the periodic absences if a player will be truly difficult to replace. But the non-stars who see stars might find themselves out of work far sooner than they otherwise would have in the days that "dings" were shrugged off like bruises.

  Other measures being considered, such as no-contact practices without helmets and rules changes aimed at reducing head-on collisions, will go a long way toward reducing the opportunities for head injuries. But head injuries in football remain inevitable. Players will sustain concussions and, unlike in past years, such players now will be tainted.

  And that's the tragedy of this newfound sensitivity to head injuries. In an effort to prevent brain cells from dying, dreams will be prematurely killed.

  Related Links

  • PFT: Rumor Mill
  • PFT: Don't forget the Jets as possibility for Cowher
  • PFT: Week 12 picks
  • Iyer's Week 12 picks
  • Jets CB Strickland decries cheap shots from Pats

  In the grand scheme of things, it'll be a small price to pay to preserve the fundamental essence of the sport. But with a seemingly endless supply of former college football players who can fill out the bottom of a roster, players who sustain too many concussions simply won't be in the NFL for too much longer.

  Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.

  
  
  
• 10-Pack: Bears, Lovie Smith face must-win situation
  posted on November 27, 2009 - 08:00:54 am
  
  

  ProFootballTalk.com's Mike Florio weighs in on the biggest story lines of Week 12:

  

  Lovie Smith has been Bears coach since the 2004 season.

  1. Lovie Smith needs a win, badly

  The Chicago Bears started the season 3-1, and they seemed poised to fulfill the enormous expectations that arose as soon as Jay Cutler became the team's quarterback in April.

  Since then, however, the Bears have won only one of six games. And things get no easier when they face, for the first time this year, the 9-1 Vikings.

  Though this black-and-blue rivalry often requires the participants' records to be pitched out the window, the Vikings simply seem to be the superior team, and Bears coach Lovie Smith needs a Herculean effort from his players in order to avoid slipping to 4-7.

  If the Bears can't reverse their current slide, there's a chance Smith will be relieved of his duties even before the season ends, as part of an effort by GM Jerry Angelo to save his own job.

  2. Bengals should be feeling the heat

  After completing sweeps of the Ravens and the Steelers, the Bengals had a clear path to 10-2. With upcoming games against the Raiders, Browns, and Lions, how could a team that went 4-0 against last year's AFC finalists fail to go 3-0 against a trio of the worst teams in the league?

  Well, the Bengals are already 0-1. And they next face a Browns team that took Cincy all the way to the end of the overtime period before the Bengals found a way to win. To quiet the doubters, the Bengals desperately need to knock off the dangerously loose Browns, who have nothing to lose and who already have shown that they can hang with their Ohio rivals.

  So while there are bigger games on the Week 12 docket, it'll be interesting to see whether the Bengals can put the Browns away early. If not, Cincinnati could be in danger of the kind of choke job that gets people fired.

  3. Titans on track for biggest turnaround ever

  We all snickered when Titans running back Chris Johnson suggested after the 0-6 Titans climbed to 2-6 that they could win the next eight games.

  No one is laughing now.

  The Titans have scratched and clawed their way to 4-6, and are now only two games out of the chase for the two wild-card playoff berths in the AFC.

  The road to 10-6 gets no easier this week, when the 7-3 Cardinals come to town. But given that Jeff Fisher and the Titans largely were able to keep Kurt Warner's Greatest Show on Turf in check a decade ago, it wouldn't be wise to assume that the Cardinals will be the team to put a stop to what could be the greatest redemption act the NFL has ever seen.

  4. Role reversal for the Pats

  Two years ago, as the Patriots were working their way toward a 16-0 regular season, they started taking the best shots that every opponent had to offer. And the Pats nearly lost several of those final few games.

  This time around, New England gets a crack at disrupting another team's run to perfection on Monday night, against the Saints.

  Coach Bill Belichick has been doing his best Lou Holtz impersonation of late, essentially declaring the Saints are the greatest team ever organized in the history of organized sports. But the reality is Belichick would love nothing more than to do to the Saints what no one could do to the Patriots two years ago.

  Except for the Giants, of course, in the one game that mattered the most.

  5. Kubiak in a corner

  Not long ago, the Texans had climbed to 5-3, and they had a chance to go three games over .500 for the first time in franchise history.

  Then, they nearly pulled off the upset against the Colts in Indianapolis.

  Next, the Texans lost another heartbreaker — at home to the Titans — dropping their record to 5-5.

  So with owner Bob McNair, the media and the fans expecting a first-ever playoff appearance and with the Colts coming to town for a rematch and with guys like Mike Shanahan and Bill Cowher believed to be eyeballing the place, the pressure mounting on coach Gary Kubiak suddenly is stifling.

  Houston desperately needs to find a way to knock off the 10-0 Colts for only the second time in 16 tries. If the Texans fail, they might have to run the table to save Kubiak's job.

  6. Sinking ship in Tampa

  Much has been made of the gradual disintegration of the Oakland Raiders since their appearance in Super Bowl 37, only seven years ago.

  Related Links

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  But the other team that played in that game is now in disarray as well, and they've gotten there far more dramatically.

  The Buccaneers have fallen as fast and as far as any team has ever plummeted from prominence. A stirring victory over the Packers earlier this month, which ensured the Bucs wouldn't match Detroit's 0-16 feat of a season ago, created a short-term sense of relief. But the reality remains that a mess has been made in Tampa.

  Apart from a 1-9 record, new coach Raheem Morris already has swung and missed twice in hiring his coordinators, firing both men before the end of Morris' first year on the job.

  It's unlikely the Bucs will fire Morris after only a year, which means it's very possible things won't get much better as Morris, who arguably wasn't ready for the job, learns on the fly.

  7. Shanahan using Bills, who seem to be fine with that

  It was no surprise Mike Shanahan blabbed about his Monday-Tuesday meeting with the Bills. Teams that likely will be looking for a new head coach are pondering possible candidates now, and Shanahan knows it's important to build buzz.

  So even though Shanahan likely won't land in Buffalo, he wants to use the team's interest to build interest elsewhere — and to create the leverage that comes from having options.

  From the Bills' perspective, they probably don't mind. The Bills signed receiver Terrell Owens in part to regain relevance, and it worked. (Until the regular season started.) Their high-profile search for a new coach is making them relevant again, and stories about coaches like Shanahan being impressed with the franchise could make other candidates more inclined to hear what the Bills have to say about their plans for the future.

  8. Last leg for Jason Elam?

  Earlier this week, the Falcons brought four kickers to town for a workout. It was a clear message to veteran Jason Elam, who for years has been regarded as one of the best kickers in the game.

  

  Elam has had key misses in two straight losses for the 5-5 Falcons.

  "This is a result-based business and I haven't been getting my part done," Elam told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "Your job is always on the line. I understand that completely."

  It's good he understands it because he seems to be one key miss away from seeing his job in Atlanta come to and end.

  9. Steelers show how quickly fortunes can change

  Two weeks ago, the Steelers were 6-2, riding a five-game win streak and by all appearances ready to make another serious run at a Super Bowl title.

  Then, in one eight-day span, that mark that many thought would move to 8-2 became 6-4. Suddenly, serious doubts exist regarding whether the Steelers will even qualify for the postseason.

  The difference between the best and the worst we've seen from the Steelers this season traces most directly to the absences of safety Troy Polamalu. Injured during a Week 1 game that the Steelers won in overtime again the Titans, the Steelers lost the next two while Polamalu healed. Then, when he exited the Bengals game in Week 10, the Steelers lost that one and the next.

  The Steelers desperately need Polamalu to get healthy and stay healthy.

  10. One-and-done epidemic this year?

  Most league observers assume Browns coach Eric Mangini will be fired after only one year on the job. Most league observers also believe that the other first-year head coaches are safe.

  But are they?

  Jets coach Rex Ryan, who has endlessly run his mouth while presiding over the collapse of a team that was poised to compete, could be in trouble. Bucs coach Raheem Morris possibly could be, too. Raiders coach Tom Cable, who was hired during the 2008 season on an interim basis and then awarded the full-time job earlier this year, could be on the outs, too.

  And what about Jim Mora? Hand-picked to succeed Mike Holmgren, Mora's first year has been every bit as rough as Holmgren's final season. If GM Tim Ruskell, whose contract will expire after the season, doesn't return, all bets will be off for the guy whose desire to return to the Seattle area helped get him fired by the Falcons three years ago.

  The reality is there will be some surprises. Last year, no one expected Mangini to be fired by the Jets, or Mike Shanahan to be fired by the Broncos.

  This year, the availability of guys like Shanahan could make teams who hired head coaches a year ago more willing to consider making a change, even if it means firing a guy after only one season on the job.

  Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.

  
  
  
• Could Bud Adams' middle finger endear NFL owners to fans?
  posted on November 18, 2009 - 07:47:23 am
  
  

  As the NFL and the players' union prepare for a possible lockout in 2011, both sides have a problem.

  No one cares.

  Well, people care. They want football season to proceed uninterrupted by a work stoppage. But the general public has no rooting interest in this fight. Yet.

  And so each side eventually hopes to win the hearts and minds of the average fan.

  They've been pandering to the retired players (after ignoring them for years) in the hopes that an endorsement from the players who made the game what it is will influence those of us who are inclined to tell them all to go to hell if our football is taken away. But the retired players wisely have been coy, recognizing that for the first time ever they have leverage -- and they're taking full advantage of it.

  Related Links

  • PFT: Rumor Mill
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  • PFT: Browns owner continues to support Mangini
  • Goodell fines Adams a quarter million
  • Titans talk playoffs

  Separately, the union seems to be laying the foundation for future P.R. points by openly pressing the owners for a new deal before the start of the uncapped year in March 2010. Though an agreement likely won't be reached by then, protracted foot dragging by management could position labor to claim that a work stoppage isn't the players' fault.

  This approach entails significant risk, however. By creating the impression that the union badly wants to do a deal, the owners might reasonably conclude that, you know, the union badly wants to do a deal. And this means that the owners might try to cram a bad deal down the union's throat, under the assumption that the union's desire to do any deal will overcome its desire to do a good deal.

  Then, if the owners think they're going to emerge with a good deal because the union seems to be overly eager to get a deal done, the realization that the union would rather do no deal than a bad deal could set the stage for an impasse.

  Meanwhile, with the union trying to so hard to win the P.R. battle, and the owners by all appearances not caring, a recent development having no connection to collective bargaining could go a long way toward helping the NFL gain some style points with the average fan.

  You know, the kind of fan who has a favorite team. And who gets sufficiently worked up in supporting that favorite team to fire off an occasional middle finger.

  When Titans owner Bud Adams started cranking his fists, middle fingers up, in the direction of the Buffalo Bills sideline on Sunday, football fans throughout the country suddenly saw him not as an elderly billionaire who hopes to maximize profit even if it means taking away our football but as a fan who loves the game as much as the rest of us. That public apology followed by a jaw-dropping $250,000 fine highlighted the everyman actions of Adams -- and strengthened the notion that he, and possibly many of the other 31 owners, are just like the rest of us, only with much bigger houses and much nicer cars.

  Sure, the players could respond by firing off middle fingers at anyone and everyone. But it's not the same. We expect players to do things like that.

  As to Adams, the gesture humanized the owner like nothing any owner has ever done. The key moving forward will be to get more owners to act like him. Not necessarily by using obscene gestures, but by finding ways to say and do things that genuinely and authentically reflect the reality that these folks bought teams not to make tons of money, but because they love the sport.

  

  And that's one area of real difference between most of the owners and many of the players. Though some players truly love football, plenty of them play the game in order to take full financial advantage of their supreme physical abilities. Those who choose to own a team -- to devote millions of dollars and countless hours of time -- have a passion for the sport that more closely meshes with the passion of fans, who, if there's a lockout, eventually will be pointing the middle finger of blame at one side or the other.

  Thanks to Bud Adams' middle finger, the owners might currently have the upper hand.

  Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.

  
  
  
• 10-Pack: Fuel for the Week 11 fires
  posted on November 20, 2009 - 05:53:25 am
  
  
  Mike Florio

  ProFootballTalk.com's Mike Florio weighs in on the most shocking story lines at the NFL's '09 midseason:

  1. Revis playing with fire

  Over his 12-year career, Patriots receiver Randy Moss has made a habit of responding to external sources of motivation by having big games. For Sunday's rematch with the Jets, cornerback Darrelle Revis has provided such motivation, despite an apparent effort not to do so.

  

  The previous meeting between Darrelle Revis (left) and Randy Moss could fuel the Patriots receiver this week.

  Discussing Moss' subpar performance against the Jets in Week 2, Revis insisted that he handled Moss on his own. Moss and Patriots coach Bill Belichick claim Revis had help deep.

  To a certain degree, it's a matter of semantics. In many cases, a cornerback in man-to-man coverage has a safety backing him up in the event the receiver breaks free.

  Given the manner in which Moss has been playing lately, however, it might take more than two defenders to stop him.

  Especially now that Moss has even more motivation to run rampant over Revis.

  2. Tampa surprise?

  The Saints received an unlikely scare when the Rams came within 32 yards of knocking off the unbeaten juggernaut from New Orleans. This week, the Saints face another one-win team with nothing to lose.

  Not long ago, the Buccaneers looked dreadful. Under rookie quarterback Josh Freeman, they're improving.

  Whether they've improved enough to remain within striking distance of the Saints remains to be seen. But if the Rams can do it, the Bucs can surely do it, too.

  3. Colts heading "home"

  More than 25 years ago, the Colts loaded up the Mayflowers and headed to Indianapolis. Now, they're making a pilgrimage back to Baltimore.

  And the Colts really like playing the team that currently resides in their old hometown. Since 2002, the Colts have a 6-0 record against the Ravens, whose stellar defense simply hasn't been able to sufficiently slow down Peyton Manning.

  Last year, in a season that saw the Ravens reach the AFC title game, old Baltimore beat new Baltimore (which is also old Cleveland) by 28 points in Week 6.

  This year, they stakes are even higher. The Colts are looking to extend their perfect record to 10-0, and the Ravens need a win to stay in the chase for the postseason.

  Given recent history, the Ravens surely wish they were drawing a different opponent this week.

  4. Vikings begin to reel out rewards

  With the Vikings winning eight of nine games, the guy who helped build the team has gotten a new contract.

  But what about some of the guys who are actually making it happen?

  Related Links

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  • PFT: Rumor mill

  Though it arguably was premature to give a new contract to coach Brad Childress, it's arguably overdue to lock up Adrian Peterson for the long haul. His current deal expires after the 2011 season, and there's a chance that Peterson might be losing plenty of tread from his tires by the time he's eligible for free agency.

  That's why the Vikings need to take care of Peterson now.

  Especially if they've decided that it's time to take care of the guy whose job Peterson has helped save.

  5. Gradkowski might be wishing Cable had waited a week

  Earlier this week, Raiders coach Tom Cable (i.e., Raiders owner Al Davis) decided to bench quarterback JaMarcus Russell, and to give the job to Bruce Gradkowski.

  So Gradkowski's first start with the Raiders comes against the 7-2 Bengals.

  One of Gradkowski's starts during his rookie year with the Buccaneers came against the Cowboys, whose defense at the time was run by current Bengals defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer. And Gradkowski had a rough day, generating a 29.2 passer rating in a 38-10 loss.

  This one could be ugly too, if the Bengals are ready to embrace the reality of being a great team by thumping inadequate opponents.

  

  Aaron Ross is scheduled to return for the Giants.

  6. Fresh start for Giants

  The Giants' bye week came at the best time. After five straight wins, the defending NFC East champs hit the skids with four straight losses.

  During the Giants' week off, both the Cowboys and the Eagles lost, allowing New York to pull even with Philly and to inch only one game of the Cowboys.

  Now the Giants have a fresh start. Sure, flaws remain. The pass rush isn't what it once was, which has exposed holes in a battered and beaten secondary. The offense is still searching for a rhythm, with Plaxico Burress gone and Brandon Jacobs not the same.

  But the Giants have gotten healthy during their week off. Even starting cornerback Aaron Ross seems to be ready to make his first appearance of the year.

  Bottom line: A seven-game season starts now, and hope remains for a team that seemed not long ago to be in a hopeless situation.

  7. The worst game of the year could be played Sunday

  The late George Carlin once said that there's a physician who truly is the worst doctor in America, and that someone has an appointment with him tomorrow morning.

  On Sunday, the football-watching world has an appointment with what could be the worst football game of the year.

  Of course, it could take a lot for Browns-Lions to overcome Browns-Bills when it comes to bad football. But these two one-win teams surely will try.

  And if there's a way for both to emerge as losers, we suspect that the Browns and Lions will find a way to make it happen.

  8. Broncos blew it on backup quarterback

  The decision of the Denver Broncos to ship Jay Cutler to Chicago dominated the discussion regarding the quarterback position. And for all the hand wringing that occurred when Kyle Orton became the Broncos starter, one key area had been overlooked.

  Backup quarterback.

  Somehow, coach Josh McDaniels opted to put this critical task in the hands of a guy who had thrown two regular-season passes since losing his spleen in September 2006.

  It should be no surprise, then, that after Orton left Sunday's game against the Redskins, Chris Simms completed only three of 13 throws against the Redskins for a passer rating of 7.5.

  With Orton hobbled and possibly unable to play on Sunday against the Chargers, the Broncos might see the team that had been left for dead five weeks ago roar past them en route to running away with the AFC West.

  9. Bears break out siege mentality

  With a 4-5 record that easily could be 4-7 by the time Thanksgiving weekend comes to a conclusion, the Bears are feeling the heat.

  So they're staying out of the kitchen.

  By "kitchen," I mean the realm of the unblinking red eye of the media. The team declined to make quarterback Jay Cutler, coach Lovie Smith or G.M. Jerry Angelo available for NBC pregame interviews.

  Avoiding interviews won't keep people from discussing the obvious: Cutler is a disappointment; Smith is in danger of getting fired; and Angelo is ultimately responsible for everything that's happening.

  10. Fewell has a narrow window of opportunity

  On Tuesday, word broke that the Bills had booted head coach Dick Jauron.

  By Tuesday night, defensive coordinator Perry Fewell had the job on an interim basis.

  On Wednesday, reports emerged of multiple potential candidates for the position after the season ends, including former Broncos and Raiders coach Mike Shanahan, former Saints coach Jim Haslett, and Montreal Alouettes coach Marc Trestman.

  In other words, Fewell has little or no chance of securing the long-term gig.

  So the only way to get consideration is to force consideration by winning games. It'll be a challenge, given the team's talent level. But that would make instant success even more noteworthy, if Fewell somehow can pull it off.

  Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.

  
  
  
• 10-Pack: Middle-of-the-pack battles loom large in Week 10
  posted on November 13, 2009 - 08:53:13 am
  
  
  Mike Florio

  ProFootballTalk.com's Mike Florio weighs in on the most shocking story lines at the NFL's '09 midseason:

  1. Playoff game in New York?

  The Jaguars are 4-4. The Jets are 4-4. When they play in New York, it'll essentially be a playoff game.

  Sure, the winner won't necessarily make the playoffs. But barring an unlikely turnaround, the loser definitely won't get there, especially with a cluster of other teams (Chargers, Texans, Ravens, Bills, Dolphins) jockeying for the sixth seed in the AFC playoffs.

  So in a year in which there are plenty of really bad teams, the AFC has more than its fair share of mediocre ones, and one of them is going to end up in the playoffs.

  

  Can Kurt Warner and the Cardinals beat a team that they should beat this week?
  2. Cardinals need to deliver a knockout.

  The Arizona Cardinals have done a nice job this year against the good teams on their schedule. Against the bad teams, however, the Cardinals have stumbled.

  So after beating the Giants then losing to the Panthers then beating the Bears, the Cardinals now welcome to town the Seahawks when they're ripe for a stumble.

  Now is the time for the Cardinals to reverse the trend and deliver what essentially would be a knockout blow for the 3-5 Seahawks. A win would give the Cards a three-game lead plus a tiebreaker over Seattle, and the ability to focus only on the 49ers, who finally have reversed a four-game losing streak.

  3. Ice Bowl rematch could cure the hot seat.

  After losing to Brett Favre at home and the Bucs on the road, the Packers are in danger of imploding.

  They desperately need to build some momentum, and that process ideally would start with a win in their next game.

  Enter the Cowboys. Last year, Dallas won at Lambeau Field -- the site of 1967's Ice Bowl -- for the first time ever. Their 6-2 record is arguably a little inflated, and the 'Boys might be ripe for a beating.

  The key for Green Bay will be to protect quarterback Aaron Rodgers and to avoid giving up a big play to Cowboys wideout Miles Austin. If Rodgers has time to throw, the Packers have the weapons to outscore the Cowboys.

  If they don't, then that hot seat under the rear end of coach Mike McCarthy will only get hotter.

  4. Another November swoon for Eagles?

  Last November, a three-game winless streak left the Eagles at 5-5-1 with five games to play. This November, an ugly home loss to the Cowboys has dropped Philly to 5-3 with road games on tap against the Chargers and Bears.

  Losses in both would put the Eagles back at 5-5, with a stretch run featuring road games against the Falcons, Giants, and Cowboys.

  So in a season featuring widespread belief that the Eagles would be in the thick of things come January, the reality is that they've got their work cut out.

  5. Take the Saints and give the points.

  So much for the 20-point spreads.

  The 8-0 Saints are traveling this weekend to St. Louis, home of the 1-7 Rams. The Saints, against much better teams than the Rams, are averaging more than 30 points per game. The Rams, against much worse teams than the Saints, are averaging fewer than 10.

  And yet the spread is only 13.5 points.

  Though we point this out for amusement purposes only, we think it would be quite amusing to bet the farm on the Saints.

  6. Bengals might not really want to win in Pittsburgh.

  Four years ago, the Cincinnati Bengals went to Pittsburgh and beat the Steelers.

  The victory cemented the AFC North for the Bengals, and it prompted league observers to declare that a changing of the guard had occurred.

  But then the Steelers woke up, won the rest of their regular-season games, made the playoffs as the sixth seed, went to Cincinnati for the first round of the playoffs, blew out Carson Palmer's ACL, beat the Bengals, Colts, and Broncos, and ultimately won the Super Bowl.

  So while on the surface the Bengals would surely love to complete a remarkable sweep of the Ravens and the Steelers, it might also be a good idea not to wake up the monster again -- especially since this version of the Steelers is a lot better than the one the Bengals beat in 2005.

  Related Links

  • PFT: Cutler's nonchalance is a concern
  • PFT: Porter pitches trash talk for now
  • PFT: Rumor mill
  • Offsides: 49ers send Bears into hibernation
  • Brown: QB battles highlight Week 10 action
  • Vinnie Iyer's weekly picks
  • Shanoff: Brady vs. Manning as big as it gets
  7. Vikes should start pulling Favre whenever they can.

  As Vikings quarterback Brett Favre deals with a groin injury that could nag at him for the rest of the season, the team needs to find ways to rest him. Though he'd never agree to sit down for a game given his streak of consecutive starts (we think it's up to 12,000 by now), the Vikes should be trying to knock teams out quickly, so that Favre can be given the rest of the day off.

  The next two weeks, they'll have an opportunity to do so against sub-.500 teams -- the Lions and the Seahawks.

  The other benefit of such an approach is that backup Tarvaris Jackson will get some live reps in the event that something on Favre creaks until it snaps later in the year.

  8. Chiefs running out of chances.

  The Chiefs have had a very bad three years. In 2007, they won four games. Last year, only two.

  This year, there's a chance that the half-life principle operates again, leaving the Chiefs with only one win for the season.

  They've got chances to get a second win, but not many. One of the last and best opportunities comes this weekend, when they head to the Black Hole for a rematch with the 2-6 Raiders. Then again, the Raiders beat the Chiefs earlier this year at Arrowhead Stadium.

  If the Chiefs can't do it this weekend, the best remaining chances arguably come next month, with back-to-back home games against the Bills and the Browns.

  Depending on the weather for the December 20 game against Cleveland, there could be fewer people in the stands than on the playing surface.

  9. AFC teams pulling for the Pats.

  With the Colts holding a two-game lead over the closest four AFC teams, the throng of Patriots fans this weekend will include the fans of the Bengals, Steelers, Broncos, and anyone else with designs on earning a first-round playoff bye.

  OK, Jets and Dolphins fans likely won't be shaking the red, white, and blue pompoms.

  The teams chasing the Colts need them not only to fall within reasonable striking distance of the two-loss and three-loss teams, but also to be stripped of that air of invincibility, in the hopes that one loss will become two (at Baltimore) and maybe three (at Houston).

  Of course, the rooting for the Pats will be temporary. If New England moves to 7-2 by beating the Colts, fans of the teams who want to see Indy fall in Week 10 will go back to rooting against the Patriots in Week 11 and beyond.

  10. Monday night misery.

  This year, the Monday night schedule contains several very good games.

  But not this week.

  The slumping Ravens head to Cleveland, for a game against a 1-7 Browns team that by all rights should be 0-8.

  Ugh. Wake me up when it's time to go to bed.

  But all is not lost on this one. For the same reasons that folks tuned in to ESPN a few weeks ago to watch Redskins coach Jim Zorn, you know, not coach, the rubbernecked demographic might turn out in droves to see what happens.

  Or, at a minimum, to see what exactly about the Browns will get Jon Gruden worked up into a frenzy of cliched superlatives.

  On second thought, maybe this one won't be so bad, after all. I'll just go to bed at halftime.

  Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.

  
  
  
• 10-Pack: Biggest surprises of '09 NFL season at midway
  posted on November 11, 2009 - 07:56:04 am
  
  

  ProFootballTalk.com's Mike Florio weighs in on the most shocking story lines at the NFL's '09 midseason:

  1. Saints look Super

  Last year, the New Orleans Saints showed off a souped-up offense. Led by quarterback Drew Brees, who won MVP consideration by nearly breaking the single-season passing yardage record, the team came close to securing a spot in the postseason.

  This year, the expectations were mixed. On one hand, steps were taken to improve the defense. On the other hand, the Saints are stuck in a highly-competitive division.

  

  Saints QB Drew Brees is in the running for MVP consideration again this season.

  Little did anyone realize the Saints would unleash one of the best overall teams in the past generation. Five of their eight wins have come against playoff teams from a year ago, and only one opponent has stayed within double digits.

  Perhaps most impressively, the Saints have scored 48 points against the Giants and 48 points against the Eagles, two of the supposedly elite teams from the NFC.

  Right now, the top of that short list is occupied by the Saints. And in the same year that marks the first time in franchise history that New Orleans has won its first eight games, the Saints could be in for another first.

  Their first Super Bowl appearance.

  2. New faces, same results for Colts

  This was supposed to be a year of significant transition for the Colts. After seven seasons with the same head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, and special-teams coordinator, changes occurred at each position. Receiver Marvin Harrison? Gone. His replacement, Anthony Gonzalez? Injured in Week 1, and still not back.

  Injuries have diminished the defense, too, with All-Pro safety Bob Sanders making a two-game cameo between a bum knee and a busted elbow and cornerback Marlin Jackson gone for the year, too.

  Through it all, quarterback Peyton Manning has performed better than ever. Like Drew Brees a year ago, Manning is on pace to break Dan Marino's 25-year-old single-season passing yardage record. And as Manning continues to pile up statistics, it's becoming more clear that he's destined to retire with all of the records currently held by the guy who has already unretired twice. (Except for one — most career interceptions.)

  So the Colts, amazingly, are 8-0. And in the year in which a Super Bowl berth would have been less likely than in any other season of the current decade, the Colts could be on their way to get back to Miami, and win there again.

  3. Vindication for Favre

  In 2008, the Packers opted for an unproven Aaron Rodgers over an unretired Brett Favre. But the Packers knew that the maneuver could blow up in their faces. Otherwise, they wouldn't have tried to convince Favre not to play elsewhere — and they wouldn't have refused to trade him within the same division.

  Fifteen months later, it's becoming more clear that the Packers screwed the pooch.

  The Packers supposedly had grown weary with Favre's annual wafflings, wanting football's version of Shakespeare's greatest creation to make a commitment early in the 2008 to play, or not to play.

  In hindsight, what was the point in wanting an early answer? His current team was willing to welcome him even after training camp — and their 7-1 record is proving that the Vikings got it right.

  And the Packers got it wrong.

  Incredibly wrong.

  So wrong that, in the end, the Rosencrantz and Guildenstern who are running the Packers could end up suffering a similar fate.

  4. Titanic collapse

  Even with the changes this year in Nashville — and there were plenty of them — no one expected the Titans not to contend for the AFC South crown.

  And on opening night in Pittsburgh, the Titans looked to still be among the best teams in the AFC, pushing the Steelers to overtime.

  The Week 1 loss became two. Which became three. Which became five.

  The bottom came when the Titans went to New England for a game in the snow. They gave up 59 points and scored none.

  But then coach Jeff Fisher decided (or, more accurately, it was decided for him) that Vince Young should replace Kerry Collins at quarterback. Two games later, the Titans have partially climbed out of the hole. Still, 2-6 is a far cry from what everyone expected from the Titans.

  5. Broncos quiet the critics

  Only slightly less surprising than the Titans' 0-6 start was the Broncos' ability to roar out of the gates with six straight wins.

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  • Midseason Report: Saints players dominate
  • The Trenches: SN's NFL blog

  Given the turmoil of the 2009 offseason, with long-time coach Mike Shanahan fired, a new coach who was surely carded when he stopped on the way home after getting the job to buy a bottle of champagne, a franchise quarterback who was traded, and a high-end wideout who was suspended.

  So who would have dreamed the Broncos would win six straight to start the season?

  Of course, the team is now moving in the other direction. Come early January, there's a chance the Broncos won't even make the playoffs. Still, even if Denver doesn't win another game, they've already won several more times than many thought they would in 2009.

  6. Big Ben brings the heat

  Last year, the Steelers won Super Bowl 43 despite a starting quarterback with a passer rating barely above 80.

  This year, Ben Roethlisberger is playing like a certain Pittsburgh native who never won a Super Bowl.

  Despite the distractions inherent to a sexual assault lawsuit filed not long before the opening of training camp, Roethlisberger is having one of the best years of his career, with a 104.1 passer rating and 2,295 passing yards in eight games.

  Though the pass-happy nature of the Pittsburgh offense could be a problem when the weather turns at Heinz Field, Roethlisberger and company likely will find a way to keep making it happen, and they'll once again be in the mix for another NFL title.

  7. Rex Ryan rides the roller coaster

  After years of being passed over for head-coaching jobs due to concerns that the apple doesn't fall too far from the tree that punched Kevin Gilbride in the face, the son of Buddy Ryan spent plenty of time after getting the Jets job acting like the former Eagles and Cardinals head coach.

  It continued into the regular season, with plenty of big talk creating unreasonable expectations for a team that treated its Week 2 game against the Pats like the Super Bowl — and most of the games since then like the weeks following a Super Bowl win.

  For Rex Ryan, the highs prompt screaming and the lows generally bring silence. And the roller coaster surely will continue for as long as he has the job.

  But his worst habit — refusing to acknowledge that when the Jets lose, the better team might actually have won — could cause him to hold the job for not very long, since the implicit message is that the players are good enough to win, but the coaches are making it happen.

  8. T.O. disappears

  In March, the Bills' decision to give receiver Terrell Owens a one-year, $6.5 million contract caused the kind of hoopla that might have happened in Buffalo if the team had actually won one of the four Super Bowls in which it played.

  There were parades and pageants and keys to the city, all because the Bills had returned to relevance.

  And they remained relevant until the season actually began.

  Sure, they're not as bad as some of the really bad teams. But the locals weren't hoping for their relevance to be the garnish on a plate of mediocre. T.O. was supposed to make the difference.

  In eight games, he has 23 catches for 281 yards and only one touchdown. He's a non-factor in an offense that can't figure out how to use him properly, and it's making plenty of people wonder whether the problem is that he simply no longer has it.

  9. Giants find their way, then lose it

  For many teams (e.g., the Titans), it's difficult after a stellar regular season followed by a first-round playoff flameout to slide into the valley of 0-0 and climb back out. Really, what's the point of winning game after game after game when it all can evaporate in three hours on a cold January afternoon?

  But the Giants, without Plaxico Burress, surprised us all with five wins to start the season.

  

  And then the wheels came off against the Saints, and the Giants haven't been able to put them back on.

  It makes little sense. The best explanation is the Giants simply aren't as good as they thought they were. The biggest question is whether they are still good enough to find a path back to the postseason.

  10. Bad teams are really bad

  Last year, three really bad teams from the prior season — the Dolphins, Falcons, and Ravens — turned things around under first-year coaches and made it to the playoffs.

  So, this year, some of the really bad teams from 2008 would turn it around, too, right?

  Um. No.

  Apart from the Bengals, who can't really be called a surprise in this regard given the manner in which they finished the 2008 season (three straight wins) and the return to health of quarterback Carson Palmer, none of the really bad teams from 2008 have been anything other than really bad.

  The Browns, Bucs, Lions, Chiefs, and Rams have one win each. The Raiders, somehow, have two.

  So while there are still plenty of reasons to be excited about some great games down the stretch and a very compelling round of playoffs, it might be much harder than usual for the NFL to sell hope to the fans of all 32 franchises during the 2010 offseason, especially with many of them likely to take advantage of the looming uncapped/unfloored year to spend even less money in an effort to field a competitive team.

  Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.

  
  
  
• Coaching carousel will be a wild ride in 2010
  posted on November 04, 2009 - 08:02:13 am
  
  

  After the 2005 season, Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti had a problem. The team he owns had missed the playoffs for two straight years. Coach Brian Billick, who won a Super Bowl in his second year on the job thanks to a dominant defense built before he arrived, had demonstrated a chronic inability to develop a successful quarterback. And so Bisciotti was thinking about making a change.

  But if Billick had been fired, who would have been hired?

  Bisciotti concluded that there were no alternatives who would have represented clear upgrades. So he kept Billick.

  

  If Jeff Fisher departs Tennessee, will he land in Dallas?

  For any owners considering whether to upgrade the coaching position for 2010, this year is the year. No fewer than five Super Bowl-winning coaches (Billick, Mike Holmgren, Mike Shanahan, Jon Gruden, Bill Cowher) are expected to be available. Other former coaches who have rehabilitated their reputations (like Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams and Broncos defensive coordinator Mike Nolan) will see their stars rise again. And, surely, assistants with no prior NFL head-coaching experience will land on the league's radar screen -- if for no reason other than to leverage the men with pelts on the wall into taking less money.

  With so many competent candidates and so many bad teams, January 2010 could spark an unprecedented game of musical chairs, and there might not be enough empty seats when Bocephus stops asking whether we're ready for some football.

  So let's look at the teams that might have vacancies, and the men in whom they might be interested.

  

  Eric Mangini was given too much power in Cleveland.
  Browns: Once the Browns hire a new GM, his first order of business will be to hire a new head coach. After being burned by giving too much power to Eric Mangini, owner Randy Lerner is more likely to go the "strong GM" route, which would rule out men like Cowher, Shanahan, Holmgren, and Gruden, who surely will hold out for a position in which they'll run the show. So Vikings defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier or 49ers defensive coordinator Greg Manusky could become attractive options.

  Titans: This team will have to lose a lot more games before the longest-tenured coach in the league is in real trouble. But with owner Bud Adams possibly having to choose between Jeff Fisher and quarterback Vince Young, Fisher could enter the market as a candidate who can be had for a draft pick or two. And he'd likely be replaced by someone other than Cowher, Holmgren, Shanahan, or Gruden -- unless Adams decides to part ways with GM Mike Reinfeldt, too.

  Jaguars: Before making a coaching change, owner Wayne Weaver would have to be willing to pay out the rest of Jack Del Rio's salary. With the team barely drawing 40,000 attendees to its home games, that might be too tall an order. But if Weaver decides to make a change, he might then make a play for Florida's Urban Meyer, who would pair up nicely with quarterback Tim Tebow.

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  Raiders: Apart from the Randy Hanson incident and fresher allegations of domestic violence, Tom Cable simply isn't getting it done. But the problem is that owner Al Davis will have a very hard time attracting a new coach who has options elsewhere. His last two head coaches were previously basic unknowns, and if the Raiders make a change, the job surely won't be filled by anyone whose name currently would sound familiar to the average football fan.

  Chargers: In San Diego, a failure to make the playoffs could get Norv Turner fired. The bigger question is whether the Spanos family also would clear out GM A.J. Smith. And that would go a long way toward determining the identity of the next coach. If Smith goes, Shanahan could be intrigued by the possibility of coaching twice per year against the two franchises that have fired him.

  Cowboys: Despite the optimism routinely displayed by owner Jerry Jones, Wade Phillips' job is on the line. It has to be. And with Jeff Fisher possibly available, Jones could be intrigued. In the end, look for Jones to hire someone who'll accept the fact that Jones still calls the shots -- which could rule out the likes of Shanahan, Holmgren, Cowher, and Gruden.

  

  This is likely John Fox's last season in Charlotte.

  Redskins: The craziness of the past month will serve only to drive up the demands of the next head coach, who'll want hazard pay and full control. The question is whether owner Daniel Snyder will be willing to step aside. In 2001, he did that -- but for one year only -- firing Marty Schottenheimer after an 8-8 season.

  Bears: Though many regard the franchise as being averse to buying out contracts, a poor outcome to a season of high hopes could force a change. As in San Diego, the identity of the next coach will depend on whether the Bears fire coach Lovie Smith only, or whether GM Jerry Angelo gets a pink slip, too.

  

  Packers: The team didn't insert in the Brett Favre trade a term requiring the Jets to give up three first-round picks if Favre were traded to the Vikings because Green Bay wanted to save Brett from the embarrassment of being beaten twice by his old team. The Packers feared precisely what has occurred this year -- a two-game sweep by a divisional rival with Favre at the helm. Depending on the whether the Packers make the playoffs and whether the Vikings finish with fewer than four losses, a house-cleaning could occur. And if the job becomes open, Jon Gruden's perpetual scowl could become a smile, if only for a moment.

  Panthers: Barring a miracle of a much greater magnitude than Sunday's upset of the Cardinals, coach John Fox likely will be gone after this year. And the early speculation continues to focus on Bill Cowher, given both his proximity to Charlotte and a stated desire by owner Jerry Richardson to emulate the Rooneys, who own the franchise where Cowher spent 15 seasons.

  Buccaneers:

  If the Bucs don't win a game, it would be difficult -- if not impossible -- for the team to give Raheem Morris a second season. The decision ultimately could hinge on whether Gruden and former GM Bruce Allen get new jobs, which would cut off the buyout obligation and make it easier to dump (but still pay) Morris, and possibly GM Mark Dominik. That said, the suddenly dysfunctional Buccaneers would likely encounter difficulty in attracting a high-end coach. The perception is that the team won't spend enough money to be competitive, and until that changes, the job in Tampa won't be regarded as an attractive one.

  Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.

  
  
  
• 10-Pack: Key divisional games highlight Week 9
  posted on November 06, 2009 - 08:33:13 am
  
  

  ProFootballTalk.com's Mike Florio weighs in on the biggest story lines of Week 9:

  1. Dolphins take Wildcat back to Foxborough.

  Last year, the 0-2 Dolphins dragged their dorsal fins to Foxborough for what most presumed would be a beat-down, despite the absence of Tom Brady.

  

  Ronnie Brown and the Wildcat return to scene of coming out party.

  But the Fins sprung a feline surprise for the Pats: The Wildcat.

  Miami pulled the sheet off their new toy, with running back Ronnie Brown taking the direct snap. The result? Six plays, four touchdowns in a 38-13 rout.

  This time around, the Patriots will be ready. But when the Wildcat is clicking, preparation doesn't matter, as the Jets learned on a Monday night in October.

  The real test for the Wildcat will be whether it will continue to work now that the shock value has evaporated. As Miami tries to get back to .500 after losing three straight to start the season, the Dolphins are banking on the fact that the answer is, "Yes."

  2. Elimination game in AFC North?

  Several weeks ago, the Cardinals and Seahawks played what was essentially an elimination game in the NFC West. The Seahawks lost and are now fading, and the Cards catapulted to the top of the division.

  This weekend, the Ravens visit the Bengals in a rematch of a Week 5 game that Cincy somehow stole in Baltimore.

  This one will operate as an elimination game only if the road team fails to settle the score. If Cincy wins, they'll move to 6-2, giving them a two-game lead over the 4-4 Ravens that would be, as a practical matter, a three-game lead due to the fact that the Cincinnati sweep would give the Bengals the first head-to-head tiebreaker.

  A win by Baltimore, however, would make the division a three-team race -- especially if the Steelers lose to the Broncos in Denver on Monday night.

  3. 44-6 revisited.

  With the Giants hitting a three-game pothole after starting off with five wins in a row, the Cowboys and Eagles are now sitting atop of the NFC East.

  Now Dallas returns to Philly, the scene of a season-ending game last December that had a playoff berth hanging in the balance.

  That's when the Eagles dismantled the Cowboys, 44-6. This season, both teams have looked bad at times, and each has only one impressive win -- the Cowboys over the Falcons, and the Eagles over the Giants.

  Meanwhile, receiver Roy Williams is potentially disrupting the post-T.O. harmony on offense, which has erupted in the midst of an unlikely three-game winning streak.

  Bottom line in this one? Whoever controls the NFC East might have a very hard time getting past this year's elite teams in the NFC -- the Vikings and Saints.

  4. Panther uprising in New Orleans?

  For teams in the midst of special seasons, the games that entail the greatest risk involve their division rivals.

  And that's particularly true for the Saints, who'll be hosting the Panthers on Sunday.

  Consider this: The Panthers under John Fox have never lost in New Orleans. Not once in seven games.

  Also, Carolina quarterback and Louisiana native Jake Delhomme has never lost at the Superdome as a Panther, a Saint or a Louisiana-Lafayette Rajun Cajun.

  Then again, that might be all the motivation the Saints need to prove that they truly have arrived. It also helps that the Panthers haven't been very good.

  But Carolina seems to be improving, winning three out of four after starting 0-3. And Delhomme could make a lot of folks forget about his poor early-season performances by shocking the Saints.

  5. High stakes for current, former Chicago teams.

  Two of the last three NFC champions meet on Sunday in the city where both teams were founded -- Chicago.

  The 4-3 Cardinals, who had landed in Arizona after a stretch in St. Louis, are coming home with a one-game lead in the NFC West. In the North, the 4-3 Bears are looking up at the 7-1 Vikings, and thus are thinking more about jockeying for wild-card positioning.

  Neither can afford to fall to 4-4.

  The pressure is even greater on the Bears, given that the expectations for the current Chicago team were even greater entering the 2009 season, even though the Bears didn't make the playoffs last year.

  6. Chargers, Giants move in different directions.

  

  Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, who'll be forever linked, meet in New York on Sunday.

  More than five years ago, quarterback Eli Manning famously spurned the Chargers, forcing a trade to the Giants for Philip Rivers and draft picks that became Shawne Merriman and kicker Nate Kaeding.

  Initially, it appeared that San Diego got the better of the deal, with three Pro Bowlers in the fold, and Manning consistently displaying inconsistency.

  But then the Giants and Eli engineered a playoff run for the ages. After Manning slipped a Super Bowl champion T-shirt over his shoulder pads -- an image only slightly less awkward than the moment in which he held (without holding his nose) a Chargers jersey with his name on it -- the pendulum swung back to the Giants, and it has remained there.

  This year, however, the Giants and Chargers have nearly equal records and, for now, very different vibes. New York has lost three in a row and is struggling to get back on track. San Diego was written off after losing to the Broncos last month, but after two straight wins and Denver's first loss of the season, the door is cracked open in the AFC West. A bit.

  So Sunday's game between the two teams will provide another chapter in the ongoing discussion regarding which one got the better of the trade. A win by the Chargers could go a long way toward nudging the momentum their way, especially since it would greatly enhance San Diego's chances of making it to the playoffs while hurting the Giants' considerably.

  7. Texans ready for their close-up?

  The Texans have broken out of their lose-one-win-one routine with three straight wins.

  Related Links

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  And now they are at 5-3, heading to Indianapolis for a chance to go three games over .500.

  For the very first time in franchise history.

  That's right, in eight seasons, the Texans never have had three more wins than losses.

  To make that happen, they'll have to cause the Colts to lose their first game of the year. And the Texans will have to do it on Indy's turf.

  It won't be easy. But if it happens, the Texans will land in the middle of everyone's radar screen as a legitimate contender in the AFC.

  8. Niners need to stop the bleeding.

  Fairly quietly, the San Francisco 49ers are imploding. Three straight losses have converted a 3-1 record into 3-4, putting the September favorites to win the NFC West a game behind the Cardinals.

  

  And so now the Niners face a Titans team with a one-game winning streak and a nothing-to-lose mentality.

  Despite the losses, the 49ers remain hopeful, with coach Mike Singletary essentially guaranteeing a playoff berth. Few teams with a losing record display such optimism.

  Then again, it's easy to be optimistic in the NFC West.

  9. Ryan Clark's desire to play is no surprise.

  Plenty of former football players feeling the long-term consequences of a collection of concussions will say that if they knew then what they know now they never would have played football.

  Here's the best evidence that football players will play football, regardless of the potential long-term consequences: Ryan Clark.

  The last time Clark played in the mile-high altitude of Denver, a sickle-cell trait in his blood activated, and attacked. He lost his spleen, his gall bladder, and nearly his life.

  And so as the Steelers prepare to return to Colorado for the first time since that night in 2007, Clark sounded until very recently like a man who fully intended to play there again.

  Why? Because he's a football player. And football players (drum roll, please) play football. It becomes a part of their identity, and they accepted the risk the first time they put on a helmet.

  Given the grave danger (Nathan Jessup wants to know if there's another kind) willingly encountered by soldiers in our all-volunteer army, the notion of football players taking short-term or long-term health risks isn't necessarily noble or reckless. Instead, it's the simple reality of the sport, and of the men who choose to play it.

  10. Back to the Bay of Pigs.

  In the late 1970s and most of the 1980s, the Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers had two dates each year, in what the late Pete Axthelm dubbed "The Bay of Pigs."

  And piggish it was, given that both franchises were awful for long stretches of the first 15 years of their coexistence in old NFC Central.

  Now that Tampa is in the NFC South and Green Bay plays in the reconstituted black-and-blue division, the two teams play each other less frequently.

  This year, the Bucs are breaking out their original uniforms for the game. Given that this edition of the franchise is arguably the worst since the original Tampa team that lost 26 games to commence its existence, the "throwbacks" make their return just as fans are getting ready to "throwup."

  Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.

  
  
  
• 10-Pack: Are unbeaten Broncos for real? We'll find out soon enough
  posted on October 30, 2009 - 06:25:36 am
  
  

  ProFootballTalk.com's Mike Florio weighs in on the biggest story lines of Week 8:

  1. Broncos face their biggest test yet

  After the Broncos won their first three games, each week brought a new opportunity for the team to prove its legitimacy.

  First, it was the Cowboys. The Broncos came from behind to secure the win, and then they held off Tony Romo and company.

  

  Coach Josh McDaniels and quarterback Kyle Orton have the Broncos at 6-0 on the season.

  Next, the Patriots came to town. Once again, the Broncos found a way to nail down the victory after falling behind.

  Many thought the Broncos stood little chance in San Diego, given that the home team had its back pressed firmly against the wall. And yet Denver found a way to cram a foot between the wall and the Chargers' collective rear ends.

  So now the 6-0 Broncos face the Ravens in Baltimore. This 3-3 team easily could be undefeated, and the Ravens suddenly need to get a win or face a difficult climb back to the playoffs.

  Bottom line? If the Broncos can win this one — essentially a playoff game for the Ravens — then Denver really is for real.

  And then they'll get to prove that they're for real once again the following Monday night against the Steelers.

  2. Eagles can't let Westbrook play this week

  Philadelphia running back Brian Westbrook lost consciousness Monday night, when his head had a rendezvous with the leg of linebacker London Fletcher.

  Technically, Westbrook's availability will be determined at game time. As a practical matter, the Eagles can't let him play.

  This week's House Judiciary Committee hearing regarding brain injuries doesn't mean that Congress presently intends to pass laws that supersede football's rules. Not yet, at least. The hearing instead represents a warning shot — a message to the NFL to clean up its own mess before Congress decides to do it for them.

  So even if Westbrook can pass every mental acuity test devised by mankind, allowing him to play would significantly complicate the NFL's efforts to keep Congress out of its backyard.

  3. Price for next Redskins coach keeps rising

  Most Redskins fans assume this year's extreme dysfunction will end after the season, when owner Daniel Snyder cleans all or part of the house.

  But it won't be quite so easy. With each and every embarrassment, it will become more difficult to lure acceptable replacements at head coach, and possibly at GM.

  Or, as a practical matter, more expensive.

  With the Redskins becoming the NFC's version of the Raiders, high-quality coaches and executives will shy away from going there.

  Unless the price is right.

  That's a problem owner Daniel Snyder will have to confront. If the dollars being offered by the Redskins and another team are relatively equal, the Redskins will lose out. So the Redskins will have to spend even more.

  The way things are going, there's a chance it could take a lot more.

  4. Nine wins could secure an AFC playoff spot

  Since 2000, only two teams have qualified for the playoffs in the AFC as wild cards with fewer than 10 wins. Several teams with double-digit wins have been on the outside looking in — the 2008 Patriots (11-5), the 2007 Browns (10-6), the 2005 Chiefs (10-6), the 2003 Dolphins (10-6).

  This year, a scrum for the sixth seed in the AFC could result in a nine-win team getting in. Currently, the Jets and Texans lead the way at 4-3. The Ravens, Jaguars, and Chargers have marks of 3-3. The Bills are still alive at 3-4, and the Dolphins still see a glimmer of hope at 2-4.

  If none catches fire over the balance of the season, the team that sneaks into the postseason could indeed have nine wins.

  There's a chance that the last team in will be determined by the application of tiebreakers to multiple 9-7 or 8-8 teams.

  5. Ten wins might not be enough in the NFC

  In contrast to the AFC, the NFC typically welcomes a team with fewer than 10 wins into the playoffs every year. Sometimes two.

  Last year, the 9-6-1 Eagles qualified. In 2007, 9-7 was good enough for the Redskins to qualify. The prior year, the Cowboys made it at 9-7 — and the Giants landed a spot at 8-8. In 2004, a pair of 8-8 teams (the Vikings and the Rams) made it.

  Indeed, since the playoff expanded to six teams per conference in 1990, only two 10-win NFC teams failed to win a spot in the playoffs. Both came in 1991, when the Eagles and 49ers each missed out at 10-6.

  This year, eight teams have two or fewer losses through seven weeks. It could result in 1991 revisited, with two teams having 10 wins or more missing out on the party.

  6. Playoffs? Playoffs!

  Eight years ago, in November 2001, the 49ers made their most recent trip to Indianapolis. San Fran thumped Peyton Manning and the Colts, 40-21.

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  The loss, in which the Colts blew a 21-20 lead, dropped Jim Mora's team to 4-6.

  "That was a disgraceful performance," Mora told the media after the game. "We threw that game away. We gave them the game. It was pitiful, absolutely pitiful."

  And then it happened. Someone asked Mora whether his team could turn it around and make the playoffs.

  "Playoffs? Don't talk about playoffs. Are you kidding me. Playoffs? I'm just hoping we can win a game, another game."

  They did win another game. They actually won two more, beating the Falcons and the Broncos.

  But the Colts lost another four, finishing 6-10. After the season, Mora was fired, Tony Dungy was hired, and the Colts have been talking about playoffs every year since.

  7. Titans' Jeff Fisher fears an 0-16 finish

  By all appearances, Tennessee Titans coach Jeff Fisher doesn't believe in quarterback Vince Young. Otherwise, starter Kerry Collins would have been benched for Young several weeks ago, when there was still time to possibly salvage a playoff berth.

  Now Fisher reluctantly is flipping the switch back to Young. And, really, what other choice did Fisher have? After losing 59-0 in Collins' last start, they can't get much worse under Young.

  Fisher possibly fears that using Young makes four wins or fewer more likely, which in turn makes Fisher's firing distinctly possible. Though many league observers believe Fisher instantly would be hired by another team as its head coach, it would be a hard sell for an owner or a GM in another city to bring Fisher to town when he's wearing the Matt Millen-Rod Marinelli taint of 0-16.

  With such an outcome, Fisher not only would lose his current job, but he'd also find it difficult to find another one as a head coach.

  8. Critical condition in Chicago

  The Bears have plunged from 3-1 to 3-3, punctuated by a 35-point blowout by the Bengals.

  The offense and defense aren't getting it done and the coaching staff is catching the heat.

  It will go from really bad to incredibly horrible if the Bears find a way to blow it on Sunday at home against the Browns. Though highly unlikely given the funk in which the Browns have resided for most of the year, Cleveland gave the Bengals a pretty good game.

  And that's a lot more than the Bears can say for themselves.

  9. In Bills games, the best team usually loses

  Surprisingly, the Buffalo Bills have found a way to win three of their seven games.

  Even more surprisingly, four of their seven games weren't won by the better team that day.

  It started in Week 1. The Bills had the Patriots beaten. And then they found a way to blow it.

  In Week 5, the Bills held the Browns to two pass completions. And then they found a way to blow it.

  More recently, the Bills have flipped the dynamic around, stealing wins from the Jets and the Panthers despite being outplayed in both games.

  Regardless of whether the pattern holds, the reality is the Bills could be 5-2 right now if they'd been able to close out the games they should have won.

  10. Carolina gets a little hair of the Cardinal

  A year ago, the Panthers were in the middle of a stellar season. They pushed the Giants to the limit, and nearly swiped the No. 1 seed in the playoff field.

  

  The Panthers still earned a bye, and with it came the right to host a divisional-round playoff game.

  That's when the wheels came off. The Cardinals came to Charlotte, Jake Delhomme coughed up six turnovers, the Panthers pretended it never happened, and now they're 2-4 and sinking fast.

  Though they'll have to navigate a very difficult remaining schedule in order to make it back to the postseason, maybe a win over the team that started the slide could finally begin the process of turning things around.

  The more likely outcome is that things won't turn around, and Delhomme is commencing his last 10 games as quarterback. And John Fox is starting his final 10 games as head coach.

  Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.